WNBA Prediction · 2026-09-29 · 8:40 PM ET
Minnesota Lynx vs New York Liberty: Prediction, Odds & Best Bet
SharpCapper's AI analyzed Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty (WNBA) using live odds, injuries, and prediction-market pricing, and lands on New York Liberty ML at +140 with a Strength score of 6/10 (MEDIUM risk). The model estimates a 46.6% win probability, a +4.9% edge over the market's implied price.
The Pick
- Best bet: New York Liberty ML (+140)
- Strength: 6/10 · MEDIUM risk
- Win probability: 46.6% · +4.9% edge vs the market's implied price
- Recommended stake: 0.5u
- Status: posted before tip-off, graded publicly
The Edge
We make this side 46.6% to win off our score model (confirmed at the live best price). At +140 the price only pays as if it were 41.7%.
Key Factors
- Minnesota Lynx: a playoff berth clinched; 1st of 15 in the league-wide standings (the top 8 make the playoffs, conferences do not matter). New York Liberty: 8th of 15 in the league-wide standings (the top 8 make the playoffs, conferences do not matter); 9 games ahead of the first team out.
- Our number makes this side 46.6% to win, the live best price pays as if it were 41.7%
- The market has moved 2.9 win-probability points away from this side since the open
- ESPN BPI makes the Liberty the favourite, 55% to win on our side
- The Liberty have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Lynx this season
- Against us: The Lynx have won 75% of their games this season against 59% for the Liberty
- Against us: The Lynx are outscoring opponents by 7.1 a game, the Liberty outscoring opponents by 3.2 a game
Learn the strategy
- NBA Player Props: Finding Value
- Expected Value (+EV) Explained
- How to Read Betting Odds
- Moneyline vs. Spread
AI-generated analysis for informational purposes only, not betting advice. 21+ · 1-800-GAMBLER.