NFL Fantasy Projection Accuracy: Our Public Record

See how close our fantasy projections came to the points players actually scored. Compare them with a simple average of each player’s previous four games. The record is free to read.

Every projection on the weekly SharpCapper fantasy board is stored the moment the board publishes, with the timestamp that fixes what was knowable at the time, and graded against nflverse box scores every Tuesday. This page shows mean error, calibration slope and hit rate by week and by position, alongside what a plain four game average would have projected for the same players.

When a player has posted prop lines, projections start with those lines and remove the sportsbook’s built-in fee. Players without a posted line use recent game averages.

• ✓ Graded against box scores every Tuesday
• ✓ Losing weeks stay on the page
• ✓ Compared against a plain four game average
• ✓ Thin samples show their count and no metric
• ✓ A player with no box score line stays ungraded, never scored as zero