The SharpCapper Parlay Lineup: Parlay of the Day, Weekly Monday Moonshot, and Super Sunday Moonshot

How we select parlay legs, estimate the combined probability, and publish the results for daily tickets and weekly moonshots.

How we select the legs

Each leg must have an estimated win probability above the probability implied by its price. For independent games, multiplying the leg probabilities gives the estimated chance that every leg wins. The estimate depends on the accuracy of those probabilities.

An illustrative comparison

Suppose a parlay has an estimated chance of about 22%, while its price implies about 15.6%. The difference is the estimated advantage. These numbers are illustrative, and the estimate can be wrong. Compare the quoted payout with the probability shown on the ticket.

Estimated probability and the public record

Every parlay is published before its first game starts and graded in public. Each ticket shows an estimated hit rate beside the probability implied by the payout. A +600 price implies about a 14% chance. The estimate combines the probabilities assigned to the legs; it is not the percentage of past tickets that won. The public record shows those actual results, including losses.

Why the legs use different games

Our published parlays use different games so we can treat the outcomes as roughly independent. Same-game legs can be related: a quarterback's passing yards and a receiver's receiving yards may rise together. Simple multiplication does not account for that relationship, so these tickets exclude same-game combinations.

When no parlay qualifies

If no combination meets the required estimated advantage, we publish No Bet for the day. We do not add weaker legs to fill a ticket.

Parlay of the Day

The daily board offers up to three tickets with 2 to 4 legs from qualifying daily picks. Each leg uses a different game and the best available sportsbook line. Combined odds are roughly +250 to +900, with a stake of 0.25 units per ticket. Every result is public.

Weekly Monday Moonshot

The Monday ticket has 4 to 6 legs, combined odds from +1000 to +5000, and a stake of 0.25 units. Each leg must meet its pricing requirements. The ticket shows its estimated hit rate, and most tickets at these odds will lose.

Super Sunday Moonshot

The Sunday ticket uses player props across 4 to 8 different games, with combined odds from +5000 to +25000. Markets can include touchdowns, made threes, home runs, strikeouts, shots on goal, and passing or receiving yards. It is published before the games start with an estimated hit rate and a 0.25-unit stake. Results are graded publicly.

Quarter-unit stakes

Daily parlays and both moonshots use 0.25-unit stakes. Combining legs increases the chance of losing the ticket, even when each leg has an estimated advantage. The stated probability is an estimate, and long losing runs are possible.

Review the ticket and the record

Check the legs, available odds, estimated hit rate, and stake before following a ticket. The public record includes every graded result. When no combination qualifies, the board says No Bet.